2010 Global Wine Exports Improve Over 2009: Rabobank

2010 global exports are improving for most countries over 2009, but exchange rates will continue to be a problem, according to the Rabobank Global Wine Quarterly Report for Q4 2010 (pdf).

BRIEF OVERALL STUDY HIGHLIGHTS

• France, Italy, Spain, the US, Chile and Argentina all registered substantial increases in export volumes. The one exception appears to be South Africa, with a 4% decline in export volumes.

• The light global crop of 2010, the improving global economy and the unloading of excess stocks over the past year appear to be taking some of the pricing pressure off major suppliers.

• European, Argentine and other suppliers may be deriving some pricing benefits from weak local currencies, but  other major suppliers, such as Australia, are facing more adverse currency conditions. Australia saw its average export price fall an additional 11% through September 2010, and while oversupply played a role in this trend, the lion’s share of the decline appears to be due to exchange rate variations.

• French exports showed strong recovery in the first ten months of 2010, with growth in value (14.7%) outpacing growth in volume (7.6%), reflecting solid pricing improvement of 6.5%, but still not completely compensating for the 29% average pricing decline of 2009.

• Spanish exports rose 30% by volume and 18% by value, with average prices declining 9% through the first ten months of the year. Export volumes are now roughly back in line with prerecession levels, but pricing is below even 2006 levels.

• US exports through September were up 4% by volume and 27% by value, led by a strong increase in exports of higher value bottled wine to key markets.

• South Africa saw total export volumes decline 4% through November 2010.

• Chilean wine exports grew 10% by volume and 12% by value (measured in US dollars) through the first ten months of 2010. Average bottle prices remained relatively stable, but growth in bottled wine exports outpaced exports of bulk wine, leading to better average revenues for Chilean exporters.

• Australia continues to face significant pricing pressure, with export volumes rising 1.4% while values fell 10% for the first nine months of 2010.

IMPORTS INTO THE UNITED STATES – HIGHLIGHTS

• Imports into the US continue to grow at a healthy pace, with value growth outpacing volume growth. This is mainly because bottled wines are gaining share from bulk wine imports, leading to an improved price mix. It is important to flag, however, that the average unit price of bottled wines saw further declines in 2010.

• Volumes of imported bulk wine declined 22%, while bottled imports grew 9%. Most of the decline in total bulk wine imports were the result of the decline in bulk imports from Australia (down 36%) and to a lesser degree Chile (down 18%) compared to the first nine months of 2009.

• Average per-unit price for bottled wine imported into the US fell 15% through the first nine months of 2009, but only 3.8% during the same period in 2010.

• Every major US supplier, with the exception of Australia, experienced an increase in exports of bottled wine volumes to the US.

• Total import volumes through the first nine months of 2010 were up 3%, but value increased 8%.

• Average unit price for imports is up 4.8% from 2009 levels due to the decline in bulk wine imports, but the average per-bottle price is down 3.8% from 2009.

These are brief highlights, so make sure to read the full study.