Reality Check: Global Wine Supply & Gullible Brokerage Analysts

Here we have it again: the latest “shortage” jeremiad  among the big brokerage analysts:

First it was Citi (No Winegrape Shortage: Citi Report Sloppy, Based On Bad Data) and now Morgan Stanley (Global wine production decreases, says Morgan Stanley).

And derivative stuff like this: A global wine shortage could soon be upon us.

It’s what happens when you rely on partial facts whispered in your ear by those who can benefit from encouraging grape growers to over-plant.

And then reality slaps you in the face:

• World Wine Production Seen at 7-Year High on Spain and Argentina
• California Wine Grape Harvest Estimated at 4 Million Tons
• Italian vintners look abroad as home sales slump
• Italian wine consumption hits record low

The biggest question is not about a shortage, but who is trolling big brokerages?

And why analysts are so eager to be suckers for that line like they were in the 1990s?

Analysts and shortage trolls forget the wine tsunami gluts — especially in the U.S., Australia and New Zealand — that their  bogus “shortage” caused and which shook up the market in 2001.

Or maybe that’s what they want? Just think for a moment on who benefits most from gluts.