IRI/WII: What Are Consumers REALLY Drinking. Much Of What You Think Is Wrong.

The wine industry’s perception that box and value brands own all the growth categories is wrong. This broad-brush conviction  may have been true six months ago, but it is not justified by a detailed and current look at what consumers are really buying.

The market is in flux and opportunities exist for those willing to take a close look at the details of what price categories and varietals are really growing, and those that are losing ground.

TOP 10 GROWING CATEGORIES INCLUDE SUPER- AND ULTRA-PREMIUMS

Significantly, even a look at the broader sales indicators show that recent consumer purchases contradict the idea that cheap wine is the only thing selling.

Wine Industry Insight’s analysis of data from Information Resources Inc. shows that wines selling at an average bottle price of $25.15 are making greater sales gains than box wines with an average 750ml price equivalent of $1.92.

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The analysis also shows that wines selling at an average bottle price of $12.43 are growing faster than the “Two Buck Chuck” with an average 750ml price equivalent of $2.68.

Clearly something is going on here that contradicts the conventional wisdom. One key principle is that consumers don’t drink a “category” or a “varietal.”  They drink a bottle of something that they paid a given price for.

Consumers are not a mass market, which is why broad-brush data — while offering a quick indication on the overall market –  can be misleading.

DATA GET STRANGER — AND MORE USEFUL — WHEN LOOKED AT IN DETAIL

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CONSUMER RED WINE PURCHASES THUMB THEIR PALATES AT THE “CONVENTIONAL WISDOM”

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TOP SELLING WHITES SHOW SAME CONTRA-CONVENTIONAL CONSUMER BEHAVIOR

Consumer purchases of the top 10 white wine price/varietal categories reflects the same erratic reality as the reds.

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The data show that Pinot Gris/Grigio costing an average of $14.83 per bottle is the fastest-selling white price/varietal category coming in at number three in the top ten.

A look at the original spreadsheet shows that cheaper white Zins gave surprisingly poor performances.

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DOWN-TRADERS ABANDONING SMALLER WINE RETAILERS IN FAVOR OF THE SUPERMARKET TOP SHELF?

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SLEUTHING OUT THE “WHAT’S HAPPENING” AND “WHAT TO DO?”

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WHAT ARE CONSUMERS DRINKING: MONTHLY WII FEATURE

As the market continues to change, Wine Industry Insight will visit these numbers with each month’s fresh batch of IRI data.

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