U.S. Craft beer growth still healthy amid shifting sales pattern

According to Bart Watson, Chief Economist for the Brewers Association, the growth pattern for craft beer has shifted:

 

“We’ve seen scan (i.e. off-premise retail) [volume]weaken a bit in the 2nd half, but that’s coincided with strengthening premises use (i.e. direct sales) numbers, so those two may be offsetting themselves. I’d say the over-under [growth] is still somewhere in the 7-8% range.

 

“Haven’t had a chance to look at retail sales yet,” he said, “but I’d expect them to grow faster than volume sales, probably by 2-3 points. Pricing is still fairly healthy in off-premise (with most of the growth coming from higher price tiers) and the shift to direct at the brewery sales means a higher % of sales at a fairly high margin.”

With 2015 retail sales of $22.3 billion, a 7.5% increase means that 2016 might hit almost $24 billion.